Speed Buyers Guide: Prospecting for SBs in Non-Roster Invites
Scott Monroe - February 8, 2008
Each season, every team invites a host of non-roster players to Spring Training, supposedly to compete for a spot on the MLB roster. These players are usually a mixture of fringe veterans, minor league free agents, and young players looking for an opportunity to head north with the big club at the end of the spring. Realistically, only a few of these players have much of a shot to make a big league roster, and only a handful will have the ability or the opportunity to make a significant difference. This column looks at a few players who could make a difference in the SB category, if the stars align properly for them in 2008.
We will look at several players in each league, analyzing their BPIs from recent years and their projected 2008 stats (using the most recent February 3 projections). Please note that many of these picks are highly speculative, as lots of different things would have to break right for many of these players to receive enough playing time to make any difference in even the deepest of fantasy leagues. But any of them could be worth a flyer in your fantasy league if you are looking to speculate on some potential SBs.
American League
Christopher Basak (3B, MIN) and Alejandro Machado (2B, MIN): With much of the MIN roster turning over, there may be opportunities for several players to seize some playing time due to the unsettled situation. Basak has played professional ball for eight years, but has only one AB in MLB (with NYY last season). However, he has displayed some decent speed in the past few seasons, and could squeeze out a few ABs as a utility player with a good spring and some lackluster play or some injuries from his competition. His recent numbers and current projection:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2006* 371 16 118 20
2007* 341 13 117 23
2008 95 3 97 14
*=MLEs
Machado will face similar challenges as Basak will for playing time, but could also see some playing time in a utility role if things break right. Machado was a Rule 5 pick last winter by MIN from WAS, but spent the entire year on the DL following shoulder surgery last March. The Twins will need to keep Machado on the active roster for at least 90 days in 2008 or he must be offered back to the Nationals, so that should at least provide some incentive for MIN to keep Machado with the team at least in the beginning of the year. Machado's recent BPIs:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2006* 373 20 113 21
2007 DNP
2008 60 3 92 14
*=MLEs
Reid Brignac (SS, TAM): Brignac is one of the Rays' top prospects, but is certainly overshadowed by consensus #1 prospect Evan Longoria. While Longoria could be the odds-on favorite to begin the year in the TAM infield, Brignac is probably slated for Triple-A. However, if Brignac has a hot spring and either Jason Bartlett or Ben Zobrist start the year off slow, then Brignac could be in line for some playing time in TAM. Even if this is not the case, Brignac should wind up at SS for TAM at some point before the end of 2008. Brignac has very good speed and the potential to steal a few bases, so he is certainly someone to consider stashing on your reserve or farm roster if you have the room.
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2007* 527 13 115 15
2008 No current projection
*=MLEs
Luis Terrero (OF, BAL): Terrero will be with his fourth team in the past four years in 2008, and looks to squeeze out a few ABs with BAL. Right now, Terrero is competing with Tike Redman for a fourth OFer role with BAL. Of course, if the much-rumored Erik Bedard trade happens and SEA OFer Adam Jones reports to BAL, then Terrero will have a much more difficult time receiving any playing time in BAL. But even with Jones, the Orioles will not really have a natural CFer on their roster, so Terrero could be kept around for his ability to play CF. Yes, he's a long shot, but depending on what occurs in Spring Training Terrero is at least in the mix for the time being. His numbers reveal plenty of speed, if given the opportunity:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2005* 191 4 102 13
2006* 342 17 104 37
2007* 182 7 80 28
2008 32 1 100 17
*=MLEs
National League
Jay Bruce (OF, CIN): Bruce is Baseball HQ's #1 minor league prospect for 2008, and could wind up beginning the year as the starting CFer for CIN after Josh Hamilton was traded to TEX. Bruce has good speed, stealing 19 bases in 2006 in Single-A (even though he did have only eight SBs combined at three levels in 2007). There are plenty of reasons to draft a player like Bruce (please see HQ's Organization Reports for a full scouting report), but adding a few SBs to your roster can't hurt either. Bruce's numbers:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2006+ 444 19 --- 25
2007* 253 3 73 10
2008 277 3 88 9
+=Actual Single-A stats
*=MLEs
Jeff DaVanon (OF, SD): Injured for most of 2007, DaVanon is looking to land a 4th OFer role with SD. But, considering that the top three OFers in SD are currently Scott Hairston (career high is 339 ABs), Jim Edmonds (37 and oft-injured), and Brian Giles (also 37 and coming off of microfracture surgery on right knee, leaving him uncertain for Opening Day), DaVanon has an excellent chance to see a lot of playing time with the Padres this year. DaVanon is competing with Jody Gerut (no MLB ABs since 2005) and Chase Headley (a top prospect at 3B but not much OF experience), so it would appear that he has a good opportunity to begin the year with SD if he has a decent spring. Even at 34, DaVanon can still run as evidenced by his recent BPIs:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2005 225 11 111 22
2006 221 10 129 19
2007* 147 2 87 11
2008 118 4 100 15
*=Combined MLB and MLEs
Scott Podsednik (OF, COL): How the mighty have fallen. Just one year removed from a starting job and 40 SBs, Podsednik now finds himself as a NRI with the Rockies. The COL starting OF is set with Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras and Brad Hawpe, but after that there are several players competing for a backup role. Podsednik certainly has the speed and could be a quality backup, and playing in Coors Field certainly cannot hurt either. If he can stay healthy and has a solid spring, then Podsednik goes from possible flier to a decent end-game pick because of his speed.
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2005 507 59 129 50
2006 524 40 146 38
2007* 287 14 135 32
2008 188 9 129 27
*=Combined MLB and MLEs
Colby Rasmus (OF, STL): The top prospect for STL could wind up as the starting CFer for the Cardinals, despite not having played above Double-A thus far in his career. But with Jim Edmonds now no longer patrolling CF, Rasmus has the opportunity to show that he deserves a shot, and with a good spring he should get it. Rasmus has stolen 28 and 18 bases in the minors the past two years, and could approach 15 with 400+ ABs this year. His numbers:
Year AB SB SX SBO%
==== === == === ====
2006+ 496 28 --- 24
2007* 472 15 108 17
2008 211 6 93 13
+=Actual Single-A stats
*=MLEs
Stay tuned in the spring to see how the competitions featuring the above players shape up. Again, many are long shots to be any kind of fantasy factor for this season, but if things shape out well for them they could give you a leg up in the SB department.